Most IT job growth from inexperienced workers getting hired [ Edited ]

[weaver]

The Kiss of Death (Preliminary)

 http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-kiss-of-death-preliminary.html

Infoworld.com and Dice.com are running a piece about the low unemployment rates in Computer-related occupations (also loosely ill-defined as “Tech” and “IT”).  The open-borders lobby will surely use these reports to continue dumping foreign labor into these occupations.

The data they are using is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by subscription only.  I happen to be on that subscription list.  There is a clear warning in the BLS instructions stating:

“Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”

Observing this constraint from the BLS instructions, I figured that we could get an idea as to how many “experienced” workers are regaining employment during this hiring spree. 

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	-2,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	52,000	5,000
Information security analysts	14,000	NA
Computer programmers	-1,000	5,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	162,000	-12,000
Web developers	3,000	-1,000
Computer support specialists	38,000	-5,000
Database administrators	9,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	13,000	-3,000
Computer network architects	35,000	2,000
Computer occupations, all other	7,000	-5,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	330,000	-13,000	3.94%

From the table above, we see that employment levels rose by 330,000 and unemployment levels declined by 13,000.  With these figures in mind, we see that only 3.94% of the employment growth came from the “experienced unemployed”. 

Even in the occupation, “Software developers, applications and system software” we only see a decrease of 12,000 out of  46,000 experienced unemployed, even with growth of 162,000 jobs.  In fact, only 7.41% of 162,000 jobs went to unemployed person with experience in the occupation as their last job.

Note: The BLS recommends that this CPS (Current Population Survey) data be averaged or smoothed over four Quarters. Perhaps I’ll revisit this report with smoothed data at a future date.

DATA Tables used in this blog entry:

Quarter 4, 2011

Table 3. Employed and experienced unemployed persons by detailed occupation and class of worker, Quarter IV 2011 (Source: Current Population Survey)
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	28,000	3,000
Computer systems analysts	445,000	12,000
Information security analysts	51,000	NA
Computer programmers	462,000	17,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	998,000	46,000
Web developers	199,000	8,000
Computer support specialists	443,000	30,000
Database administrators	112,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	211,000	13,000
Computer network architects	92,000	0
Computer occupations, all other	334,000	14,000

Quarter 4, 2012

Table 3. Employed and experienced unemployed persons by detailed occupation and class of worker, Quarter IV 2012 (Source: Current Population Survey)
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	26,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	497,000	17,000
Information security analysts	65,000	2,000
Computer programmers	461,000	22,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	1,160,000	34,000
Web developers	202,000	7,000
Computer support specialists	481,000	25,000
Database administrators	121,000	2,000
Network and computer systems administrators	224,000	10,000
Computer network architects	127,000	2,000
Computer occupations, all other	341,000	9,000

[yleedice]

Wait. I'm not sure these figures represent what you're trying to say at all.

The data in the columns don't represent how many people became employed from among the employed vs. how many became employed from the unemployed, but rather they represent how many people in each area are employed compared to how many are unemployed.

What the data show is 3.9 percent unemployment in these sectors. We cannot conject how many were among the experienced and how many are inexperience because all the data refers to experienced workers.

[weaver]

---

yleedice wrote:

This raises some interesting questions:

1. Are employers discriminating against unemployed workers (something I heard while unemployed)?
• Note: recruiting firms have sought out "passive" job searchers because they have believed those were more valuable. The rumor around Silicon Valley was that this stepped up such that recruiters were actively rejecting the unemployed. 
2. Experienced workers would by definition be older. Is age discrimination going on?
3. Are employers seeking skills that experienced employees lack? If so, what are they?

---

I believe that it is all of the above and the fact that during recovery, these positions are backfilled by foreign workers that the firm has already invested time (visa applications) before the recovery even manifests.  

With over 50% of H-1B visas and likely 90% of (unlimited) L-1 visa targeted at an occupational group that in its best years can only muster a few hundred thousand in employment growth -- the experienced, and newbies that are not from a top 100 college, are left out in the cold.  

I'd guess that about half of the temporary workers have applied for permanent status, when the occupation gives back half of its employment growth.

Additionally, hiring managers buy into the shortage propaganda in the press, and wonder what is wrong with someone who has been away from the console at all.

[weaver]

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yleedice wrote:

Wait. I'm not sure these figures represent what you're trying to say at all.

The data in the columns don't represent how many people became employed from among the employed vs. how many became employed from the unemployed, but rather they represent how many people in each area are employed compared to how many are unemployed.

What the data show is 3.9 percent unemployment in these sectors. We cannot conject how many were among the experienced and how many are inexperience because all the data refers to experienced workers.

---

The data in the first table is a simple aggregate 2012 employment and unemployment levels minus 2011 employment and unemployment levels.  The line "Employment Growth vs Professionals re-employed" are simple totals. The percentage is a simple division of the unemployment loss divided by employment growth (changed to a positive percentage for clarity).

From the BLS instructions, we know that in each occupation, to be counted as unemployed in the CPS occupational data, the professional must have been employed in that occupation as their last job.

[weaver]

Follow up:

To correctly find the unemployment rate is a completely different equation.  

(Employed + Unemployed) = Labor Force

(Unemployed / Labor Force) = Unemployment Rate

[weaver]

Here is a big question.... 

How did "Software developers applications..." employment grow by 162,000 (16.23%) in one year, leaving 34,000 experienced professionals still unemployed, and only reducing the unemployed in the occupation by (12,000),  if there is a shortage of these workers and US colleges only confer roughly 50,000 - 60,000 Comp related degrees (of all disciplines) per year?

[weaver]

YleeDIce wrote:

"We cannot conject how many were among the experienced and how many are inexperience because all the data refers to experienced workers."

This is true, we can only conject how much of the new employment was drawn from the unemployed who have experience in the occupation.  If the newly employed professional had experience abroad and was not counted in the U.S. unemployment statistic, then they would not be inexperienced as your new tag-line suggests.

[jblocks]

"Are employers discriminating against unemployed workers (something I heard while unemployed)?"

Absolutely! I've heard that from the horse's mouth many times. They'd rather hire a younger or working H1B at $80 an hour to the agency (H1B keeps $25) than an older unemployed person with 20 yrs experience. H1Bs are more adaptable they think (if they can't find or aren't looking for direct employees).

You can alsoo see the factor come into play when there's a big layoff. All of a sudden x,000 resumes from HP or Fidelity or whoever is doing the laying off are out there and are thrown in the trash without even thinking of hiring them. The attitude is often why did they let these guys go? Must be they're the bottom of the barrel (even if the barrel is already 3/4 empty).  Then these layoffs often have inscrutable  resumes filled with 20 yrs of stuff that is all  to do with internal systems and doesn't have the desired buzzwords.

[yleedice]

"From the BLS instructions, we know that in each occupation, to be counted as unemployed in the CPS occupational data, the professional must have been employed in that occupation as their last job."

Which is precisely why it is not possible to extrapolate information about inexperienced workers from it.

[0xFFFFFFFF]

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weaver wrote:

Here is a big question.... 

How did "Software developers applications..." employment grow by 162,000 (16.23%) in one year, leaving 34,000 experienced professionals still unemployed, and only reducing the unemployed in the occupation by (12,000),  if there is a shortage of these workers and US colleges only confer roughly 50,000 - 60,000 Comp related degrees (of all disciplines) per year?

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Pulled in new developers from the ranks of law, medicine and pr0n.